Saturday, October 3, 2015


Nifty closed at 7950.90 with a gain of 1.05% or 82 points on weekly closing basis. The week started on negative note on Monday, however the markets recovered on Tuesday after a gap-down opening. This was on back of announcement from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of slashing repo rate by 50 basis points.

BANKNIFTY lost 0.27% for the week to close at 17,150.20. Stocks like FEDERAL BANK, INDUSIND, YESBANK and HDFC BANK saw some buying. CNX REALTY closed at 176.15 with a weekly gain of 3.74 %. CNX METALS continued to see bloodbath. It closed at 1,650.80 losing over 2.02% over the week.
CNX FMCG closed at 19,998.35 with a gain of 2.63% for the week. Stocks like GODREJCP, HINDUNILVER, TATAGLOBAL and ITC saw good deal of buying.
During the week FII’s continue to be net buyers in Index futures with long addition. They have also been buyers in the cash market to the tune of Rs. 308.33 Cr.

For the week ahead we continue to remain bullish. Earlier, when Nifty was at 7700 we took a long view and said major correction can come after Nifty hits 8200. However, with Nifty not making much of the up move within the current cycle, there is change in the view.  Nifty may see some consolidation after a crossover of 8000. Then we may see a big up move, which will eventually lead to the return of the bull market. Dynamics of technicals keep changing, and market wires will continue to keep you update with the latest updates. For now, the advice is to remain long unless 7800 is broken. The upside target seen is 8200. 
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Friday, October 2, 2015


The advent of discount brokers in the Indian market have revolutionized the way trading is done in India.

Discount brokerages have heavily brought down the cost of trading. This has proven to be a boon to the traders especially the intraday and the derivatives trades.
Discount brokerages like RKSV and Zerodha have already started hurting the broking industry. Full-service brokers had made a request to market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to impose a minimum slab on the brokerage being charged by discount brokers. This request was declined, clearing the way for more aggressive competition.
These brokers rely entirely on the online trading platform and technology to keep costs down, while traditional brokers typically operate in multiple cities through branch offices. The discount brokerages have been able to compete so much so that established brokerages like HSBC (InvestDirect) and India Infoline had to shut their retail broking operations.

Here are some advantages of trading with discount brokerages:
1. Getting more profits
Put simply, we are out there to make money in the stock markets. When one goes through the contract note of the regular brokers, there are huge costs spent on brokerages, taxes and duties. At a brokerage of Rs.30 on per lot of Option one has to pay a brokerage of around Rs.150 for 5 lots. There are also duties and taxes which increase it to Rs.200.When the same thing is done through a discount brokerage the brokerage cost is Rs.20 and adding the taxes and duties it come to Rs.40. There is saving of Rs.150.  It directly adds more money to the profits.
2. No need to sacrifice the quality of the execution.
There is no difference between trading through a regular broker and a discount broker. There is still the old facility of call and trade. There is the new facility of mobile trading and online trading.
3. More high frequency trades
The reduction of brokerage brings down the breakdown even. The intraday brokerage for discount brokerage is 0.01% or Rs.20, whichever is lower. So, in small trades, when a trader buys at 100.01 and sells at 100.05, he still makes profit. In large trades, the advantage is even more as the brokerage is even less due to the Rs.20 cap. This reduction of breakeven point enables a trader to do more frequency trades.
4. Advanced trading
The discount brokerages have come up with advanced algorithm trading. There are hundreds of other strategies which require frequent trading. Algorithm trading has narrowed the profit making ability of a trader who relied on buying and selling spreads. Under these circumstances low brokerage offers the best chance for a trader who trades on an intraday basis or trades very frequently.

Why is the brokerage so less?
Some people doubt the authenticity of discount brokerages.
The discount broker does not give advice on what and when to buy or sell. All he offers is a platform to trade. The client has to use his/her own trading or investing skills to make a decision on what to trade.
Because they don’t offer advice, discount brokers have no vested interest in trying to sell you any particular stock.
All brokerages in India are members of SEBI. So there is no need to worry about authenticity. The financial sector is India is highly regulated and as such there is no need to be afraid to choose a discount brokerage firm.
If you are still worried, open an account with a small amount of investment. Start trading with a small investment and as you keep getting confidence increase the investment.

A lot at India’s top discount brokerages:
Raghu Kumar, his brother and co-founder Ravi Kumar along with Shrinivas Viswanath started RKSV as an only online broking house. Over the last two years, the company added 15,000 customers who are handled by 60 employees. The company has a high growth rate of 5 percent every month in terms of traded turnover. Currently, their turnover is about Rs 3,000 crore on the NSE—that is almost 2 percent of the total market turnover. Safe to say, if RKSV continues to grow at the same speed, it may well become the highest turnover player in the next five years.
Click on the below link to join RKSV :

Zerodha is one of the first discount brokers in India. As per Kamath of Zerodha, the company been able to over 32,000 clients in the past few years and around 2,000 clients are joining them every month. The low cost model works with a team of around 85 people with two centralised offices in Bangalore. A traditional broker who does similar turnover would probably be working with 2,000 people and with over 200 branches, which would ultimate lead to higher brokerages for the retail customers. Zerodha offers same brokerage across segments i.e. Equity, F&O, Currency and Commodities. They offer a single brokerage plan of Rs. 20 per trade or 0.01% /0.1%, whichever is lower per executed order.
Click on the below link to join Zerodha:
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With the Nifty hovering around 8000, there is a question in the minds of the long term investors – whether to buy now.
The optimists are of the view that the rates cuts done by the RBI will take the markets to higher levels. They are of the view that the bottom is in place and all the bad news has been factored. The rates cuts lead help the industry and earnings will pick up. They are also of the view that the all important GST bills will get in the upcoming budget session and it will be a boost for the Indian economy.
The pessimists are of the view that the worst is yet to come. The Fed rate hike will give the final blow to the market. Many are also of the view that unless earnings pickup markets will not go up. They are also of the view that opposition may continue to cause damage to the government’s reform agenda and halt the India growth story. A win for the opposition in the upcoming elections may boost their spirits and it may cause trouble to the government’s reform agenda. The China factor is causing worries.

In this article we will try to find out the green shoots a technical point of view. We will analyse some factor that will indicate when to go long in the markets.
1.       200 DMA
As we already said, 200 DMA is the line of control between a bull market and a bear market. As of today, the 200 DMA stands at 8381. A crossover of the 200 DMA will be a signal to invest for long term. Analysis of the Nifty charts will show breakout of the 200 DMA has lead to huge momentum on the upside. It will be good idea to use the breakout for buying into the markets. While selecting stock also, the crossover of 200 DMA may be considered as a signal. One can buy stocks that trading above the 200 DMA.
2.       52 week highs
A good indicator of bull markets is number of stocks hitting 52 week highs. When a market is bullish, there are more stocks at 52 week highs that at 52 week highs. A careful watch of the ratio of the number of stocks hitting 52 week highs to 52 week lows should be done before investing. When the ratio is high it indicates that bull market is in place, things will only keep getting better.
3.       Higher highs and higher lows
The classic Dow Theory states that the chart of a bull market has higher highs and higher lows. After hitting 9100, the market has been consistently making lower lows and lower highs. This needs to be broken. Once the market makes higher highs and higher lows, it will be a signal to buy for long term.

The pattern of higher low has emerged in the charts. The last low was around 7700 while the low before that was around 7550. The last high Nifty made was around 8050. Nifty has to trade beyond this level to make a higher high.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2015


Yesterday, we said that as per technicals, the Nifty would bounce back and around 7700, positions can be taken with stop loss below this level. Today we opened around 7700 and did a sharp recovery all the way up to 7,926.55 on back of RBI’s surprise rate cut. Our Nifty analysis was spot on.
When we took this call it was a bold then. Then the NASDAQ was 125 points down and SGX Nifty was also down by 73 points. However, relying solely on technical we went in for a buy call around 7700. It work and an intraday gain of around 200 points was achieved.
Let’s look at what the RBI did in the morning. The Reserve Bank of India, surprisingly, cut repo rate by 50 basis points to 6.75 percent when economists were expecting 25 basis points cut in repo rate. This brought in positive spirits in the markets and there was a sharp recovery. Banks lead the recovery.  Shares of HDFC, HDFC Bank and State Bank of India were major participants. The Reserve Bank cut FY16 GDP growth target to 7.4 percent from 7.6 percent and expects CPI inflation at 5.8 percent in January 2016.
Going ahead we believe there are ‘Ache Din’ for the markets. This will a very short and sharp up move which may take it all the way to 8200. After that, this bear market may continue its brutality and break earlier lows.
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Monday, September 28, 2015


The Nifty has now had fallen almost 16% from its 52-week high of  9,119.20. There are reports that Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold around $2.6 billion worth of Indian equities in the month of August. In September so far, they have sold shares worth $333.2 million. It shows that FIIs losing hopes on the India story. 

The fall in the equity market are attributed to many factors. Experts are of the view that this is due to fundamental factors like poor earnings growth. The RBI has also been reluctant to cut rates which has further dampened sentiment. There is however still hope in the long terms investors. They believe that the economic reform measures taken by the government will yield positive results on the Indian economy. The retail investors are of the belief that good things will soon see the light of the day. This is take markets to fresh highs.

As we look into some of the key technical indicators of the Nifty, things look very different. Indicators are showing things in favor of the bears. Here we will discuss some of these key indicators.

1. In technical terms, a bear market is when the things are off by more than 20% from their highs. Around 68% of the 500 stocks that is around 341 stocks, in the BSE index are around 20% off their 52-week highs. In a sense, more than two-thirds of the stocks in the BSE 500 index are in bear territory. Sectorwise, the Bank Nifty, Oil and Gas, Realty and Metals are also around more than 20% off from their 52-week highs, indicating they are also in bear market territory as well.

2. Lower tops and lower bottom are one of the fundamental characteristics of bear markets. This is a very basic concept of the Dow Theory. It is very evident from the Nifty charts that after hitting the all-time high of 9100, the market have consistently been making lower lows and lower highs. We have highs in the order of 9119-8843-8651-8550-8050. The lows were in the order of 8269-8000-7950-7670-7550. The classic Dow Theory of lower lows and lower highs are very much evident and unless the pattern is broken, bears seem to have the edge. Once the trend is broken and there is the classic higher high and lower low, the trend remains bearish.

3. Nifty has been trading below the 200DMA quite some time. As most of the readers know, the 200DMA is the line of control between bulls and bears. In simple turns, below 200 DMA is all about bears and above 200 DMA is all about bulls. As of today, the 200 DMA stands at 8390 and for the Nifty to turn bullish, we need to close above that. However, for quite some time, we have not been able to get close to that, leave alone breaching that. It is highly likely, that it will act as a stiff long term resistance whenever Nifty shows signs of recovery.Only when the 200 DMA is broken, can bulls make a comeback.
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Friday, September 25, 2015


Over the last few months, the Nifty has shown a correction of over 15%. The selling pressure has brutal and some of the stocks have crashed so much so that that they close to the low that Nifty made on 9th March, 2009. Whether they are a buy on low valuation or a sell on underperformed, I will read it up to the reader. We will try to discover some of these stocks and introspect as to why they have failed to keep up with good times.

Price on 9th March, 2009: 81.85
Price now 25th September, 2015: 45.20

Hindustan Oil Exploration Co Ltd
Price on 9th March, 2009: 47.10
Price now 25th September, 2015: 32.70 

Price on 9th March, 2009: 38.05
Price now 25th September, 2015: 20.40

Price on 9th March, 2009: 26.10
Price now 25th September, 2015: 6.00

Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Ltd 
Price on 9th March, 2009: 34.8
Price now 25th September, 2015: 13.08

Price on 9th March, 2009: 56.9
Price now 25th September, 2015: 7.20

Financial Technologies
Price on 9th March, 2009: 479.00
Price now 25th September, 2015: 113.50

Lanco Infratech Ltd 
Price on 9th March, 2009: 12.10

Price now 25th September, 2015: 3.20
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Friday, September 18, 2015


100% Correct proven !!!
Today the Nifty hit 8050. This is exactly the level we said it would hit when Nifty was at 7550 a few days ago. The power of technical analysis has proven right. At 7550 the 5th wave of Elliot Wave had complete and oversold indicators had hit the lowest levels. The chart levels also indicated that 7550 was a crucial level.  
Analyzing all these factors we prediction the bottom was around 7550. We got it right. The upside target given was 8050 with 8200 a possibility. This was again on basis of technical parameters. It has proven right and we made 500 points on the Nifty in a few days. 
Keep reading MarketWires daily. We may not post everyday…but when we post its correct most of the day!!!
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Monday, September 7, 2015


7th September,2015
At 7550, the Markets are now around 18% below the all time high.  In the last two months, there has been absolute carnage.  The entire bloodbath has taken the investor community by shock. Every time a support level came it brought in hope but then turned into despair. The sentiment is highly negative in both global and domestic front affected. The FIIs have been selling highly in the cash market segment.  The retail participants have also stayed in sidelines as the intensity of the fall has highly damned sentiment. Most of the heavy weight stocks were seen trading well below their 200 DMA.
There are many caused attributed to the loss. Part of it is due to the stall in reform process may get delayed as was seen in the case of GST. One of the most crowded trades in equities; the Chinese stocks have crumbled which has damned the overall sentiment.

However, at 7500, we find the markets very attractive. The technical parameters indicate that the market is highly oversold. Charts suggest that the fall should be over around these levels are we are done with the 5th wave of the Elliot wave. Only time will tell whether technicals are correct but for us, this is the time to enter into the market. A sharp up move to 8000 is highly possible. 
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Monday, August 10, 2015


The “Atal Pension Yojana” is aimed to provide financial benefits to the workers who work in unorganised sector which constitutes around 88% of the total workforce of the country. These workers do not have any formal provision of getting a regular pension payment on retirement. Moreover, due to increasing labour wages and better medical facilities, these people also face a risk of increasing longevity. So, this work force would require some kind of assured income guarantee to sustain itself in the coming years.
To avail this benefit one needs to open an account under this scheme and monthly contributions needs to be made till the time of retirement after which a pension amount ranging from Rs 1,000 to Rs 5,000 per month would be paid to the account holder and on death of subscriber and spouse, the nominee will get the lump sum accumulated by the end of the period. Any person below 40 yrs can open an account. The retirement age has been set to 60 yrs, hence one will get at least 20 yrs of contribution.

How to open Atal Pension Yojna Account?
Go to the bank where you have your saving bank account like SBI, ICICI, HDFC or any other bank.
Fill up the form (download english form or hindi form)
Make sure you fill all the fields
Mobile number is compulsory, hence that needs to be filled
If you have aadhar card, provide the number in the form (but it’s not compulsory)
You also need to provide spouse details if applicable and nominee details, which is compulsory
You will select the pension amount you need in future and based on that the bank official will write the monthly contribution required on the form

Eligibility Criteria for Opening an account
The age of the subscriber should be between 18 – 40 years.
One should have a saving bank account or should open a new saving bank account
One should be having a mobile number, which needs to be furnished at the time of filling up the form.

Monthly contribution
Note that the form itself contains a section which mentions that you are authorising the bank to deduct the monthly contribution from your account till the age of 60 yrs. So once the account is opened, your account will then get auto debited in future every month. If one does not have a bank account, then one can give their KYC documents along with account opening form with the Atal pension Yojna account form.

Minimum Contribution and Maximum Contribution
A subscriber aged 18 years will have to contribute a minimum of Rs. 42 per month in order to get Rs. 1,000 pension per month starting 60 years of age. For a 40 years old subscriber, his/her minimum contribution would be Rs. 291 per month. The contribution levels would vary and would be low if subscriber joins early and increase if he joins late.
A subscriber aged 40 years will have to contribute Rs. 1,454 per month in order to get Rs. 5,000 pension per month starting 60 years of age. For a 18 years old subscriber, his/her contribution for Rs. 5,000 monthly pension would be Rs. 210 per month.

Increase or decrease my monthly contribution 
The subscribers can opt to decrease or increase pension amount during the course of accumulation phase, as per the available monthly pension amounts. However, the switching option shall be provided only once in a year during the month of April.

Statements of transactions
Yes, you will be getting regular intimations on your account information through SMS and even a physical statement each month. Note that you can move to any part of India without interrupting your contributions because the deductions will happen automatically from your bank account.

Exit or partially withdraw from the scheme
On attaining the age of 60 years
The first option is when you reach 60 yrs of age. At that time you will be able to use 100% of the money, but only in the pension form. You will only get the pension per month and not the lump sum amount.
In case of death of the Subscriber (once they cross 60 yrs) 
In case of death of subscriber, pension would be available to the spouse and on the death of both of them (subscriber and spouse), the pension corpus would be returned to his nominee.
Exit Before the age of 60 Years
The Exit before age 60 yrs, would be permitted only in exceptional circumstances, i.e., in the event of the death of beneficiary or terminal disease. 

Discontinue the payments or delay in payments
Non-maintenance of required balance in the savings bank account for contribution on the specified date will be considered as default. Banks are required to collect additional amount for delayed payments, such amount will vary from minimum Re 1 per month to Rs 10/- per month as shown below
i. Re. 1 per month for contribution upto Rs. 100 per month.
ii. Re. 2 per month for contribution upto Rs. 101 to 500/- per month.
iii. Re 5 per month for contribution between Rs 501/- to 1000/- per month.
iv. Rs 10 per month for contribution beyond Rs 1001/- per month.
Discontinuation of payments of contribution amount shall lead to following
After 6 months account will be frozen.
After 12 months account will be deactivated.
After 24 months account will be closed.
Subscriber should ensure that the Bank account to be funded enough for auto debit of contribution amount. The fixed amount of interest/penalty will remain as part of the pension corpus of the subscriber.

Tax benefits in Atal Pension Yojna scheme
No, there are no tax benefits available in this scheme. The pension amount will be considered as the income for the person and will be added in the taxable amount.

Already a subscriber of Swavalamban Yojana 
All the registered subscribers under Swavalamban Yojana aged between 18-40 yrs will be automatically migrated to APY with an option to opt out. 

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Saturday, April 25, 2015


Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is called India’s most successful investor. There is a craze in the investor community to buy into stocks in which he has a stake. The recent correction in the markets has taken Nifty close to its 200DMA. The 200DMA is often reckoned the strongest support level of a bull run. As such, at the current levels there is an opportunity to buy. In this article we list out some of the best picks of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala which investors can buy in this correction.

Titan Company:
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has 8 crore shares of Titan, which constitute 9.05% of the total market capital of Titan Company. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s first brought in 2002-03 at an average price of Rs.5. The stock then rose to touch Rs 80 but later fell to Rs 30. The big bull had long term plans and did not sell a single share.  Today, the stock hovers around Rs.400. Historically; Titan has always given good returns over the years. Fundamentals of the company are strong. In the last decade Titan has revolutionized the jewellery and watch segment by bringing class and style into the jewellery and watch segment. Titan is one of the very few world class brands that have been made in India.  Titan is India’s largest manufacturer of quartz watches and has a dominant 60% market share in the Indian market.  It is the world’s sixth largest manufacturer of branded watches. It has successful brands like Fastrack, Nebula, Sonata, Titan Raga and Octane. Titan also has the rights for the marketing and distribution of Tommy Hilfiger and Hugo Boss watches. Speaking about Titan, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said that India would grow at 7 and 8 per cent and that demand for FMCG and consumer durables would see strong growth. As per Rakesh Jhunjhunwala the current Rs.45000 crore Indian jewellery market was roughly Rs 45,000 crore would see enormous growth in the years to come. Titan having 55 to 60 per cent market share of India’s organized watch market is bound to prosper supported by its jewellery business.

The Second largest holding in Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio is Lupin. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala started investing in this stock when it was trading at around Rs. 49. Currently, he has around 80 lakhs shares which comprise 1.76% of Lupin shares. His investment in Lupin has a market capitalisation close to 700 crore.  He has been holding the stock for the last 11 years. At the current market price of 1750 the return has been more than 1000% after adjusting for bonus and split.  Lupin has presence in more than 70 countries. The company is engaged in the development of the APIs, generic and branded formulations.  Lupin is the largest manufacturer of Tuberculosis drugs in the world.  It has remained one of the country’s top Pharma companies over the years. The company has done great work in research and development. It has been successful in new product launches and has been very aggressive in entering into new geographies. It has an advanced biotechnology program and expanded Novel Drug Discovery and Development pipeline to grab future opportunities. Lupin has been a great stock for the long term investors over the years and still making new highs.

CRISIL is at Number third position in Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio as far as weightage is concerned. Currently he is holding 40 lakhs shares of CRISIL which has a valuation of Rs.444 crore. His holding is around 5.67% of the share capital of CRISIL. The stock has been a part of Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio for a long time. Currently the market capitalisation of his investment is 6,532 crore. Crisil continues to be a good performer investments in the stock ensure good returns in the long run. The company is India's leading ratings agency. It provides high-end research to some of the world's largest banks and leading corporations. Its majority shareholder is Standard & Poor’s, one of the  world's foremost rating provider of independent credit rating, risk evaluation and investment research. The company operates in three segments - Ratings, Research and Advisory. Over the years, the company has rated more than 60,000 entities in the country.
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